The Inconvenience - Uncertainty Principle

 Let me share a hypothesis I have on how individuals connect and access entertainment. 

I argue that most people make decisions on accessing entertainment on two factors: convenience of access and likely experiential outcome. People want to consume entertainment that they know will give them the outcome they expect to have (generally positively entertaining or uplifting, if not fulfilling) and that has the fewest barriers (financial, physical distance, age requirements) to access. 

Based on this argument, I created the "Inconvenience - Uncertainty Principle," a series of three statements on how individuals choose the entertainment they access:

1) People are willing to deal with the inconvenience of accessing a work of entertainment if the outcome they expect or want is certain. 

2) People are willing to experience a work of entertainment with an uncertain outcome if the work is not inconvenient to access. 

3) People are unwilling to experience a work of entertainment with an uncertain outcome AND that's inconvenient to access. 

What this means:

1) People who, say, live 30-40 miles outside of Atlanta are willing to pay a substantial cost, drive in less than ideal circumstances, pay for a babysitter and parking - basically, reconfigure their routine day or evening - in order to see Disney's Aladdin or Hamilton at the Fox Theatre because those shows have certain outcomes. I mean...it's Hamilton. It's Disney. Someone who buys that ticket knows the outcome and will buy a $100+ ticket to see it. 

2) If a movie with a low Rotten Tomatoes score is on Netflix, then someone subscribed to Netflix will feel more willing to watch it than when it was in theaters because it's something they can watch in their pajamas, without leaving the house, and at no additional cost in money.

3) If a movie with a low Rotten Tomatoes score and an uncertain outcome is at a movie theatre more than 20 minutes away, most people will choose to not see it. If someone lives in Buford, GA and casually (or even more than casually) likes baseball, they will not drive to see the Atlanta Braves if the Braves are having a subpar season. 

To clarify some things:

Inconvenience and uncertain outcomes fall on a spectrum, personal for everyone. I began considering this hypothesis with theatre in mind. The challenges of making and producing theatre is that so few people access quality or professional theatre in their life. Therefore the outcome for a non-theatre experienced person is inherently uncertain because of poor theatre experiences and a lack of knowledge of how theatrical performances work. 

Certainty in outcome increases based on trust and experience. Individuals who have accessed theatre from a specific organization before will trust the organization and have less uncertainty in outcome. "I don't know if this play is for me, but I loved everything I've seen here." As another example, there are film directors I love that I will still go because I trust they're doing something I want to see or something interesting, even if the reviews are mixed.

Uncertainty is personal for everyone. Someone might not like an actor and therefore if a movie has that actor, the outcome becomes uncertain. "I don't want to see that movie because I don't like Jeremy Renner." 

Inconvenience can also depend on circumstance or mood. If someone just wants to get out of the house, the movie theatre 20 minutes away feels less inconvenient compared with other options of entertainment access out of the house that may be more than 20 minutes away.